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Trying To Reason With Hurricane Season

September 1st, 2010, 4:23 pm by dglenn

September begins with 3 storms in the Atlantic. No surprise that we are in the peak of hurricane season. Earl, Fiona and now Gaston.

“Trying To Reason With Hurricane Season” is one of my favorite Jimmy Buffet songs. And, one I hummed many times while on the Gulf Coast this time of year.

Here are some links to track the 3 current storms in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Earl

Click Here for the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center
Click Here for the latest computer model forecast of Earl
Click Here for Historical Paths of storms near Earl’s position

Tropical Storm Fiona

Click Here for the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center
Click Here for the latest Computer Model Forecast for Fiona
Click Here for Historical Paths of storms at Fiona’s position

Tropical Storm Gaston

Click Here for the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center
Click Here for Computer Model Forecasts for Gaston
Click Here for Historical Paths of storms near Gaston’s position

David Glenn

As Earl Strengthens In Atlantic, Heat Builds Locally

August 31st, 2010, 12:06 pm by dglenn

The overall upper level pattern will be affected as Earl strengthens off the Atlantic Coast.

As Earl’s pressure drops deepening the low pressure center, the high pressure “ridge” over the East & Southeast U.S. will strengthen. The result will be dry and hot afternoons in the mid 90s locally. Mornings will at least stay comfortable in the 60s because of the dry air.

Projected Upper Level Pattern For Late Today…. (Click for a larger view)

As Earl brushes the East Coast through the end of the week, it will pull in an upper “trough” over the Ohio & Tennessee Valleys. This should swing a front through our local region Friday resulting in some showers. The northwest flow from the trough will help ease temperatures back a bit for most of the Labor Day Weekend.

Upper Level Forecast for Saturday Morning….(Click for a larger view)

David Glenn

Tracking Hurricane Earl….And Now Fiona!

August 30th, 2010, 3:35 pm by dglenn

As noted in my post from last week, Hurricane Earl could be a storm that comes very close to the U.S. East Coast.

As of mid afternoon Monday, Earl reached category 4 strength with sustained wind of 126mph. The center of the storm staying just north of Puerto Rico. The expected path the next few days is west-northwest so that by early Thursday it could be offshore of the Outer Banks of NC. By Friday, Earl could threaten Cape Cod with a glancing blow while still at category 2 strength. Nova Scotia could take a direct hit by the start of the weekend.

Click Here for the latest tracking data from the National Hurricane Center
Click Here for the latest computer model forecasts
Click Here for historical paths of other storms near Earl’s position

There is really no surprise that activity is really picking up in the tropics. We are in the peak period of the season. Behind Earl is another system, Tropical Storm Fiona.

Early computer model projections take this system on a similar path as Earl. However, it is still early and with any tropical system, you have to take it one day at a time.


Click Here for the latest tracking update from the National Hurricane Center
Click Here for historical paths of other storms near Fiona’s position

As always, we will keep you posted. Keep this blog post bookmarked on your browser and click the links for the latest updates.

David Glenn

Covering Hurricane Katrina – Part 3 (Aftermath)

August 28th, 2010, 11:28 pm by dglenn

(This the the third and final part of Chief Meteorologist David Glenn’s memories of covering Hurricane Katrina while working on the Gulf coast in 2005.)

The storm shutters were still on our house, so I could not open any windows for some fresh air. After about 5 hours of trying to sleep, I simply could not take the heat in the powerless house. The sun was rising on this day after the storm, so I decided that it would be ok to crank up the generator. It was a small generator, but enough to power the 4 essential items I needed……fan, refrigerator, tv and satellite receiver. That fan felt GREAT! I slept a few more hours very well!

The day after Katrina started with some clouds, but by mid morning, blue skies. It was a nearly perfect day with sunshine and lower humidity. I was able to now see the mess left behind in our yard and neighborhood. We lost 2 tall pine trees and the yard was littered with the sheared roofing shingles. Two houses down from ours, a tree had fallen on a car. Property damage aside, thankfully no one was hurt in our neighborhood. Most of us spent the morning sharing stories about the storm and taking pictures for insurance purposes. My friend Dudley and I spent the next hour opening the storm shutters and getting some airflow in our house. Then, it was time to head back to work. Even though the storm had passed, our 24/7 coverage continued!

As a meteorologist, you get a lot of broadcast air time before and during a hurricane. But, afterward, this weather event becomes a news event. My role in the newscast is now greatly reduced. This gave me time to survey the damage across the region. With camera in hand, I saw some incredible scenes. I was also able to tag along with some of our reporters gathering video of the aftermath. Parts of our region looked just like coastal Mississippi with complete devastation of homes and neighborhoods. Driving around Mobile, it was still like a ghost town with most businesses closed and the few that were open had no power. No power also meant no gas pumps. Besides, there was no gas in the pumps with no deliveries expected for a few days. Mobile was able to pick itself back up pretty quickly with power restored to over half the metro area by the end of the day. The other 50% would take nearly 2 weeks. However, we were in much better shape than our neighbors to the west. Because of this, those displaced by the storm in Mississippi made their way east to Mobile. I will never forget the look of desperation on some of their faces.

(Damage from coastal Mobile County)

(Biloxi, MS)

(Biloxi, MS)

(Biloxi, MS)

This day after the storm was also shedding light on the rising flood waters in New Orleans. Coast Guard helicopters from the Mobile Coast Guard station were flying non stop day and night rescue missions. The storm surge flooding in Mobile was flooding that rises, then falls in about a 12 hour period during a hurricane. The flooding in New Orleans was completely different, it would last for weeks. I still think back to those first reports coming out of New Orleans right after Katrina passed that proclaimed the city had made it through the storm. That mood shifted later in the day as aerial video showed the rising flood waters. Take a look at the front page of the Mobile Register newspaper on Tuesday, August 30th the day after the storm.

(Click for a larger view)

The upper headline at the top states “New Orleans Still Stands……But city hit with widespread flooding”. At the time the newspaper went to print, the magnitude of the flooding had not been fully realized and reflected those earlier, more optimistic first reports after the storm. The days to follow would only have the news from New Orleans getting worse as the flood waters continued to rise and desperation followed. Compare Tuesday’s headline with the headlines the next three days. (Click each for a larger view)

(Wednesday August 31, 2005)

(Thursday September 1, 2005)

(Friday September 2, 2005)

These stories from the Crescent City along with our local region weighed heavily on all of us. I spent my days trying to stay busy cleaning our yard of debris and reporting to the television station. I missed my family. With school cancelled until further notice and still no power, there was no need for my wife and children to return from Ft Payne. On Friday (Sept 2) my mother called to tell me that my grandmother had passed away in Chattanooga. She had been in poor health for many weeks and we knew her time was short. After such an emotional week, it was compounded at that moment. All I wanted to do at that moment was to “go home”. Not to my house in Mobile, but my true home in Chattanooga. I needed my family. I made the long 6 hour drive the next day. I packed my remaining 10 gallon gas can in the back of my car because there was no gas available anywhere south of Montgomery. By the time I got to Birmingham I could see life going on as normal. Gas stations were open and no long lines for groceries. These people had no idea how fortunate they were. When I reached Ft Payne it was like a huge boulder being lifted off my back. Big hugs from my wife and sons. I handed Jack back his “lucky cat” and I said, “you were right, I’m OK!”

Even though it was for a very sad occasion to be back in Chattanooga, it was a diversion from what was going on along the Gulf Coast. Being around family was what I needed. We stayed a few more days in Chattanooga and Ft Payne before returning to Mobile. My wife and I both discussed at length how three storm evacuations in a year was growing tiresome. Maybe it was time to move back inland. That opportunity happened just a little over a year later in November, 2006 when I was hired at Newschannel 9. I was truly coming home!

The experience of Hurricane Katrina is one that I will never forget. As a meteorologist, it was an incredible experience and one that cannot be taught in a textbook. Sometimes it feels like many years ago, but other times it feels like yesterday. Those folks who are still on the coast and those of us who have moved on are still connected by our shared experiences. That is why I wanted to share this with all of you!

David Glenn

(An article I wrote for the local Gulf Coast newspaper a few weeks after the Katrina….Click for a larger view)

Covering Hurricane Katrina (Part 2 – Landfall)

August 28th, 2010, 12:38 am by dglenn

This is the second of a three part series. Chief Meteorologist David Glenn shares his experience covering Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast

Part 2 – Landfall

The 2 hour nap simply wasn’t long enough. The adrenaline from the day before was still flowing and the nervousness of the situation would not allow for any relaxation. The wind was roaring outside and I could feel the pounding of the wind against our house. Katrina was closing in. It was still dark, but I still had power….briefly. The lights were flickering as power lines were popping around the city. Just before I walked out the door for the final time, the power shut down for good. A flashlight was the only light source I had to walk to my car. Once outside, the wind was loud and strong. I could hear a sound that sounded like batting practice. That sound turned out to be the pine trees in our back yard smacking into one another as each gust roared through.

During my short drive back to the station, debris could be seen blowing across the street and parking lots. I even saw one brave jogger defying the conditions to get in that pre-sunrise workout. Activity at the studios was still just as active as it was hours before. Katrina was about to make the first landfall along the Louisiana coast. That occurred at 6:10amCT near Buras, LA. The bands of storms rolling over Mobile were fierce, and the threat of sporadic tornadoes loomed. One such threat happened as soon as I arrived to the studios. Jim Loznicka could be heard over the PA system in the building for everyone to stay downstairs due to a tornado warning. Thankfully, nothing happened, but the call to safety was necessary. Just a short time later, the power went out.

Our television station was equipped with a diesel generator that could last up to 3 days. However, as the generator powered up, it caught on fire. The fire was quickly extinguished and the building did not suffer any damage. But, with no back up power, we were off the air. Our morning show crew was urged to drive over to the Clear Channel Radio studios about 3 miles away to resume our simulcast over the radio. Our news anchors Peter Albrecht, Drexel Gilbert and I were to stay at the dark studios in hopes that the engineering staff could restore power and get us back on the air.

Two hours went by in a dark, stuffy building full of people. Cut off from data, we felt helpless. Our morning crew made it to the radio station to continue our coverage. But, as it appeared that we would not get power restored, Peter Albrecht and I urged our bosses to let us get to the radio station and continue our coverage. And, give our morning broadcasting crew a much deserved break. We left the television station in a convoy of cars for the short drive to the radio building. This is at the same time Katrina was making the second landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi border just 70 miles to our west. So, here we were, driving during the height of the storm. At one intersection, I watched as a CVS pharmacy under construction, had its siding ripped off and sent flying down the road ahead of us. Trees were nearly kissing the pavement due to the gusts. Thankfully, we all arrived safely at the Clear Channel Radio building in Midtown. Once inside around 10am, I would not leave until 1am the next morning.

(Radar image at landfall)

Our morning show crew of Scott Walker, Sandra Shaw and Jim Loznicka were relieved to see us arrive. They had been on the air for many hours and ready for a shift change. Since this was a radio broadcast, I had no maps to prepare. Instead, I felt like a sports commentator providing play-by-play of the storm. Peter and Drexel along with the Clear Channel announcers kept relaying vital information to residents and taking some dramatic phone calls from listeners all along the coast. The “lucky cat” charm that my son had given me sat perched on my laptop computer the whole time.

The storm surge in downtown Mobile reached over 13 ft, which was the highest since the early 1900’s. Water up to the traffic lights in the lower 1/3 of downtown. Across Mobile Bay, nearly every pier was plucked away. Business along the causeway suffered either from high flood waters, or just washed away. Dauphin Island, which is really a huge sandbar, had no dune protection for the homes. So, many houses were completely destroyed and homes that were set back from the water now had beach front property. The worst effects were in south Mobile Co near Bayou La Batre. This shrimping community suffered heavily with property and boat loss. But, miraculously, no fatalities.

(Doppler radar rainfall estimate)

By afternoon, Katrina was pushing farther inland. We were beginning to see some of the first video footage from Biloxi and Gulfport. Stunning….that is the only way to put it. I had just been to Biloxi a week earlier. It now was unrecognizable. For all of the neon lights of the gambling community, Biloxi/Gulfport/Ocean Springs had a quaint charm of still being small communities along the beach. Homes sat just across from the beach unlike other beach communities swallowed by condos. Katrina had submerged and brought these cities to their knees. The gambling barges had been tossed across the highway. Some buildings simply just gone….disappeared! And, there were fatalities….too many. I will never forget seeing the footage from our competing station WKRG. It was of a man desperately searching for his wife. They had been separated when their home split in half during the storm surge. The reporter interviewing him was crying as well. That is the one video moment from Katrina that I will never forget.

(Storm chaser video of the incredible storm surge in Biloxi)
YouTube Preview Image

As we continued our radio coverage into the afternoon and evening, the wind was slowly dying down, but still quite gusty. As we concentrated on our local region, I kept thinking about New Orleans. The first stories from there during the early afternoon was how the city survived and things were not as bad as had been feared. These reports were from the French Quarter, which really had come through the storm better than the rest of the city. But, I kept wondering about the levees and that circulation that seemed ominous for flooding. Little by little as the afternoon turned to evening did the news reports from New Orleans begin talking about the levee breaches and rising flood waters. What had been feared unfortunately became reality. And the story continued to unfold in the Crescent City in the days and weeks to follow.

Shortly after midnight, our news anchor Kim McCrea took over reporting the news and Kelly Foster came in to trade shifts with me. It had been a long day, the storm was winding down. Even though it was dark, I was anxious to get back to my house to see about any damage. A curfew was in place, but police allowed the media to be out. You never fully appreciate street lights until there aren’t any. I could not find my car in the dark parking lot. The only light source was from an alarm strobe in a nearby building….talk about creepy. The drive home was like driving in a cave. Sure, I had headlights, but no street lights and having to navigate around debris. It took nearly a half hour, but I made it home. Our house made it through the storm. We lost over 50% of our roof shingles, but that was it.

I had no power at the house and it was hot. I did not want to start the generator that late at night so as to not wake the neighbors. I could hear generators humming all over the neighborhood. So, with a battery lantern, I tried to fall asleep on our couch. I should have been able to quickly fall asleep, but I could not. After hearing about and seeing so much damage, I felt guilty to be resting comfortably in my home.

Part 3 – Sunday

David Glenn

Covering Hurricane Katrina (Part 1)

August 27th, 2010, 10:36 am by dglenn

August 29th marks the 5th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. StormTrack 9 Chief Meteorologist David Glenn covered the storm’s landfall in Mobile, AL. This is the first of a three part series where he will discuss the forecast, landfall and aftermath of one of the worst natural disasters in US history.

The 2005 hurricane season had already been a busy one along the Gulf Coast. Just one week into the season, Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall near Orange Beach, AL and served as a warning of things to come. The first half of July saw Hurricane Cindy make a Louisiana landfall, quickly followed by powerful Hurricane Dennis which slammed ashore near Pensacola. All of this coming less than a year after major Hurricane Ivan pounded the Alabama and Florida coast in 2004.

Once Katrina entered the Gulf through the Florida Straits, we knew that there was only one way out for the storm….over land. What was even more troublesome was that Katrina’s encounter with south Florida did nothing to weaken its internal structure. Therefore, the stage was set for a well organized storm to get stronger over the Gulf waters. Atmospheric conditions were nearly perfect for this to happen. High pressure aloft prevented any shear aloft and at the surface. And, water temperatures were typical for August in the mid/upper 80s. A classic, textbook laboratory experiment on how a major hurricane forms. Upper level winds would steer it toward the northern Gulf coast and we knew that somewhere along the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast, the damage could be catastrophic.

On August 27, 2005 I was serving as Chief Meteorologist at WPMI-TV (NBC) which covered Mobile, Pensacola and Ft Walton Beach. I had been there since 1998 and this had been the busiest local hurricane season in years. Our “wall to wall” 24 hour a day coverage began at 6pm that Saturday evening (27th) and would not end until the 31st. This meant some long shifts. We had a team of 3 meteorologists on staff which included me, Jim Loznicka and Kelly Foster. Jim and I would trade out 12 hour shifts, with Kelly working in between those shifts, especially during the overnight hours. Each of us knew what was at stake. We had been through this too often over the past 12 months.

My family had evacuated for Hurricane Ivan and Dennis. My wife was a little apprehensive to evacuate for a third time in less than a year. I urged her to leave that Saturday evening and evacuate to my inlaws in Ft Payne, AL. However, she wanted to wait until Sunday to make her decision. The morning of the 28th (Sunday) was met with the fact that Katrina was now a Category 5 hurricane with less than 24 hours until landfall. My wife immediately packed our valuables and the pets in less than 2 hours. Then came the hardest part, saying goodbye. My wife and sons did not want to leave me behind. We each had a private hug, cry and chat time before loading in the car. Just before they pulled out of the driveway, my oldest son Jack opened the car door and ran back to the sidewalk where I was standing. He held out his hand and gave me his “lucky cat” charm that he had bought at EPCOT. He said, you’ll be OK!

Once their car cleared the neighborhood, the clock was running. I had 4 hours to prep the house for the storm before heading to work for another 12 hour shift. I called my good friend Dudley Neese to assist me in putting up our storm shutters. 90+ degree temps made for some exhaustive work. I filled my car’s gas tank along with two 10 gallon containers for my generator. All loose items in the yard had to be secured. Adrenaline was pumping as I simply refused to be tired. By midday, I was off to the television station to start the long shift.

(Our house in Mobile with a new roof after Katrina)

(The morning after Katrina with storm shutters still in place)

Upon arriving at the WPMI studios, it was like summer camp. Sleeping bags everywhere. Everyone was ready to ride out the storm. Jim Loznicka and I traded shifts around 1pm so that he could get home and secure his property. As each hour passed, Katrina continued to maintain Cat 5 strength. The landfall zone had been narrowed to somewhere between New Orleans and Mobile. What made this worse is that it became apparent that we were going to be on the dangerous east side of the storm…what I often call the “beast” side. The outer bands began moving ashore just after 6pm. Tornado Watches were now in effect along with the Hurricane Warnings. Each band that moves ashore becomes progressively worse and the gap between those bands narrows until a continuous onslaught of wind and rain ensues.

Our television coverage is also simulcasted on a network of radio stations all along the Gulf Coast. This allows for our coverage to continue even with power loss. So, it is non stop work, providing continuous updates both on the air and online. By late evening, the landfall zone had been narrowed even more and was focused on Grand Isle, LA to Pascagoula, MS. We would miss the direct hit, but still be on the dangerous east side. Storm surge forecasts indicated the possibility of a 13-18 ft surge into the city of Mobile and all along the Alabama coast. This would be the highest storm surge in the city in over 50 years. New Orleans was also going to miss a direct hit. But, what I kept mentioning on the air was the troubling circulation around Katrina that could still pose a major flooding threat without the direct hit. The strong east wind on the north edge of Katrina would push Gulf water up the sound and into Lake Borgne east of the city. And, cause lake level rises in Lake Ponchatrain. As Katrina moved northeast, the wind shift from the north would push water into New Orleans and threaten the levees. Both local and regional outcomes of the storm weighed heavily on all of us as only time would tell what would happen. As the clock struck midnight on the 29th, I wondered what it was going to be like when midnight returned 24 hours later. At 1am, Jim and I traded shifts. I would have to be back on the air at 7am for the landfall.

(Video from our coverage the night before landfall…..After 8 straight hours, notice the “sweat” from the lights and no a/c)
YouTube Preview Image

Instead of staying at the station, I took the short drive back to my house to double check everything. The house was quiet and I turned the air conditioner down to as low as it would go. I did this so as to have some cool air as long as I could before the power went out. I decided to try and take a quick nap followed by a shower before facing what would be a challenging day ahead.

Part 2 – Saturday
Part 3 – Sunday

David Glenn

Could “Earl” Come Close To The U.S.?

August 26th, 2010, 3:38 pm by dglenn

While Hurricane Danielle appears to be a “fish storm”, staying out to sea, Earl is a storm that could drift farther west in the Atlantic closer to the U.S.

Longer range computer models like the GFS and ECMFW (European) favor an eventual recurve in Earl’s path, but not until it drifts much closer to the U.S. coast next week. Both long range models favor a trough or dip in the upper level wind flow that could help deflect the storm away from the U.S. coast, but some rough surf and anxious moments could happen next week for coastal residents.

(Latest NHC Forecast Path……Click image for larger view)

Click Here for the very latest NHC forecast of Earl

(GFS Model for 168 hours to next Thursday….Click image for a larger view)

(ECMWF Model for 168 hours next Thursday….Click image for a larger view)

David Glenn

My Name Is Earl

August 25th, 2010, 3:47 pm by dglenn

No…not me! That is the name of what was once Tropical Depression 7 as it has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Earl.

While Hurricane Danielle still appears to be no threat to the US (but close to Bermuda), Tropical Storm Earl could eventually become a hurricane and make a more westerly path to the western Atlantic. “Earl” could be a threat to the Bahamas by early next week. Here is the latest tracking info.

Latest tracking info from the National Hurricane Center
Latest Computer Model Forecast
Historical Paths of other storms near Earl’s Position

Our Blog Post With Danielle Tracking Info

David Glenn

Hotter Pattern Returns Next Week

August 25th, 2010, 12:27 pm by dglenn

We have had a nice refreshing break from the oppressive heat and humidity of the past few weeks. The drier air has allowed morning temperatures to drop to the 60s, which is normal for late August.

Likewise, afternoon temperatures aren’t as blistering with afternoons near 90 instead of the upper 90s. My earlier post Monday showed the upper level flow that is allowing for this comfortable, yet normal pattern for the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. The “dip” or trough in the upper level flow is from the north, keeping local conditions dry. Meanwhile, the upper level “ridge” has been moved west taking the heat with it. This should persist through early Friday.

(Upper level flow forecast for early Thursday…Click for larger view)

Over the weekend and early next week, the upper pattern will change. A trough will develop out West, with a rise or “ridge” in the upper flow over the East and Southeast US. Locally, this means some hotter afternoons back in the middle 90s. Still mostly dry though, so mornings might still be at least in the upper 60s and not quite that muggy. Summer isn’t over yet!

(Upper level flow forecast for early Monday…Click for a larger view)

Note the more westerly position of the upper pattern due to Danielle in the western Atlantic…..Still not a threat to the US.

David Glenn

Finally…..After 50 Days!

August 25th, 2010, 12:13 pm by dglenn

For the first time since July 6th, the temperature at Lovell Field dropped below 70. The official low temperature was 68 (normal low is 67)

Here are some of the other readings from around the local viewing area.

Crossville, TN 59
Murphy, NC 61
Ft Payne, AL 62
Dalton, GA 64
Rome, GA 66
Chattanooga (Lovell Field) 68

Smoky Mountains

Sugarland Center (Gatlinburg) 59
Newfound Gap (5000 ft) 48 (no warm inversion like Tuesday morning)
Mt LeConte (6400 ft) 52

David Glenn

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