After another nice day Friday, clouds should begin streaming into the Tennessee Valley Saturday in advance of a Gulf coastal system. Most of the day Saturday should be rain free, but some patchy areas of rain should begin moving in Saturday night and into Sunday as the coastal system lifts north. Periods of rain can be expected throughout the day Sunday, then ending late Sunday night and into Monday.

Rainfall amounts do not look excessive, with the heaviest amounts to our south. The NAM model projects from 0.30″-0.50″ locally through late Sunday Night. See map below (Click Here for larger view)

The GFS Model projects slightly higher amounts in the 0.50″-0.75″ range. (Click Here for a larger view)

David Glenn
StormTrack 9 Chief Meteorologist

It’s that time of year again for me to present the winter forecast. If you area a regular reader of the blog, then you have an idea where I am leaning. I always enjoy doing this whether it is successful or a bust. Be sure to tune in Monday during our 5:30pm broadcast. I will also post the forecast right here on the blog immediately following.

David Glenn

Enjoy the next few afternoons with sunshine and low 60s. Large scale pattern changes still look possible which could bring some much colder air our way around Thanksgiving and the days to follow into early December.

This map shows the critical thickness levels which indicate freezing temperatures close to the surface. Notice the hug dip over the Tennessee Valley and points south by early next Thursday. This could be followed by other shots of cold air on into early December.

My 2009-2010 Winter Forecast will be posted here on the blog next Monday (23rd). If you are a regular reader of the blog, then you already have an idea where I stand for the winter ahead. I will also be broadcasting the forecast the same day during our 5:30pm newscast.

David Glenn
StormTrack 9 Chief Meteorologist

Thanks to Kathleen Minton for submitting this photo taken by Patrick Todaro of Dunlap, TN.

The fog was dense on Signal Mtn today (picture above) and all of the higher elevation spots locally. This should continue to be a problem through Wednesday morning. Please drive carefully and keep your headlights on low beam.

David Glenn

We have been spoiled with warm temperatures lately, but the icy chill of winter is just around the corner. This week is Winter Weather Awareness Week in Tennessee. Please take a look at the web link below for reminders of winter weather terminology and ways to stay safe during wintry events. Much colder air could be on the way in the days around Thanksgiving and beyond (see today’s video update).

http://www.weather.gov/os/winter/index.shtml

David Glenn

Monday was a great day to kickoff the week with sunshine and 70 degrees. Tuesday and Wednesday will not be as nice, but really not that bad.

A slow moving area of low pressure will meander around Missouri and into the Ohio Valley through late Wednesday. This should push a weak front into the Tennessee Valley resulting in some scattered showers both days. Rainfall amounts should stay light. Model estimates show 2 day totals around 0.50″ on average, so nothing like last week. The cloud cover and showers should help hold afternoon readings to only the upper 50s to near 60 which is near normal for this time of year. Drier and milder conditions should return for Thursday and Friday. I am keeping an eye on the weekend forecast as there is some potential for rain as an area of low pressure could form along the Gulf coast.

I am still expecting some long term changes in temperature starting late next week and beyond. Be sure to check out my Monday Evening video update for a look at the 14 day temperatures trend.

David Glenn
StormTrack 9 Chief Meteorologist

Back to back sunny, warm weekends in November? Sounds to good to be true, but it’s gonna happen! After a nearly perfect weekend last weekend, Saturday and Sunday should again be sunny and warm.

Expect a sunny to partly sunny sky Saturday with temperatures by afternoon reaching the lower 70s (60s mountains). A very light southerly breeze through the afternoon. Chilly again Saturday night as temperatures drop back to the lower 40s. Sunday should be partly to mostly sunny with a high temperature in the lower/middle 70s. Monday also looks warm and dry with highs in the lower 70s. More cloud cover can be expected as each day goes by next week, but the chance of rain remains low. A better chance of showers could move in for next Friday and into the following weekend.

Soak up these warm temperatures while they stick around. Long range projections continue to indicate that some much colder air could move in during the week of Thanksgiving.

College Football Kickoff Weather

Citadel @ Chattanooga 2pm - Sunny & 72
Tennessee @ Ole Miss 12pm - Sunny & 70
Auburn @ Georgia 7pm - Clear Sky & 60s (50s by late game)
Georgia Tech @ Duke 12pm - Cloud/Sun Mix & 64
Alabama @ Miss State 7pm - Clear Sky & 60s (50s by late game)
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt 12:20pm - Sunny & 66
La-LaFayette @ MTSU 4:15pmET - Sunny & 71

David Glenn
StormTrack 9 Chief Meteorologist

I spent early Thursday afternoon in Varnell, GA visiting the Varnell Elementary 4th grade class. What a great group of students! I want to thank Amy Williams for inviting me to the school.

David Glenn
StormTrack 9 Chief Meteorologist

The 2.59″ of rain that was received at Lovell Field set a daily rainfall record for November 10th. The previous record was 1.80″ in 2002.

The Autumn season alone has boosted the yearly rainfall total to 46.47″ through November 11th, which is 7.62″ above normal. Since the start of the Autumn season (September 1st in the climatological world), we have received 22.09″. Nearly half of our yearly total has occurred since September 1st.

David Glenn

Through 7:15pm Tuesday, the expected crest of South Chickamauga Creek was estimated at 16 ft by 2pm Wednesday. This could change based on any additional heavy rain. If it should crest at that level, it would be below the flood stage of 18 feet.

Click Here for the latest stage and crest forecast for South Chickamauga Creek

David Glenn