Many folks have asked me where winter is. With temperatures averaging above normal since Christmas Day, the chill of last December has faded. Get the winter gear ready, it looks as if an arctic blast is headed southward by next week!

Before next week though, we will have a cold front roll by over the weekend. This will soak us with some showers (nothing heavy) Saturday, then cool us back to January normals for Sunday. The first in a series of arctic blasts arrives Tuesday. This strong cold front could even squeeze out some flurries or snow showers as it moves by. A secondary blast of arctic air moves in by late week keeping our temperature well below normal.

OK, for you snow lovers out there, I am sure that you are wondering about our chance of snow with these frigid temperatures around. Well, we need to take a “wait and see” approach. Longer range computer models are starting to show that the strong high pressure associated with the arctic air might suppress any Gulf moisture from coming in. Now, that is according to the models…meaning, that could change. So, we will have to see how things progress through the week with each front moving in. Now, with each of those fronts, they will have some moisture creating some flurries or snow showers, but not the typical pattern for memorable Tennessee Valley snowfalls (again based on the current model runs). As I have stated many times on this blog, it’s winter and things change quickly. So, if you follow some of the long range models, you will see many different scenarios. Let’s take it one day at a time.

As usual, I will have more updates right here on the Storm Track 9 Blog!

NFL Playoffs Weather for the Titans: Showers, especially during the 1st half. Kickoff temps in the 40s, breezy with 30s late game. GO TITANS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

Historical photos of the 1973 flood in Chattanooga as posted in an earlier blog link - Click Here

The heavy rain has ended, but the runoff of water is still causing water levels to rise in area streams and creeks. South Chickamauga Creek is expected to crest at 23ft by midday Thursday. That level is 5 ft above flood stage and considered “moderate flooding” for the creek. The Sequatchie River at Whitwell should crest at 14 ft which is the flood stage by midday Thursday. Near Summerville, GA, the Chattooga River is above flood stage at 16.60ft and is holding steady.

More River and Creek Stages can be found at this link

Overnight, another weak disturbance will swing through the Tennessee Valley. This will bring some clouds back and even squeeze out some sprinkles or flurries. The best chance for flurries and snow showers will be at higher elevations and the usual spots north and east of the city. Accumulating snowfall could occur in the Blue Ridge Mountains east of the city and areas north of Knoxville. The central and northern Cumberland Plateau could also have some light accumulation. The majority of our viewing area will be fine.

Dry through Friday, but another chance of showers returns Saturday. This should not be heavy, nor will it effect the local flooding conditions. Next week looks MUCH COLDER (Arctic Air)…check out the 7 day forecast. More details to follow!

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

Wow…what a day in the world of local weather! Our forecast from Monday was for our area to receive rainfall in the 2″-4″ range. So far, that forecast is holding up. Through 7pm at Lovell Field in Chattanooga, the total since midnight was 2.99″ which is a new daily record for January 6th. We could still receive another 1″ of rain before it all ends Wednesday morning. Here are some other rainfall totals around the region (Through 11pm):

From the Storm Track 9 Neighborhood Network

Scottsboro, AL: 4.18″
Lafayette, GA: 4.33″
Etowah, TN: 4.10″
Higdon, AL: 3.45″
Boyd Buchanan: 3.28″
WTVC Studio: 3.22″
Cleveland, TN: 2.39″
Decatur, TN: 2.01″
Pikeville, TN: 1.78″

South Chickamauga Creek Update
* AT 10PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS…17.76 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.

* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY ABOUT 10 PM
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 22.0 FEET BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
* AT 22.0 FEET…AIRPORT ROAD IS CLOSED TO TRAFFIC. A COUPLE OF
HOMES ARE SLIGHTLY FLOODED NEAR INTERSECTION OF MACK SMITH ROAD AND
MAY STREET. FLOODING BECOMES EXTENSIVE AROUND THE NORTH END OF THE
AIRPORT. WEST CHICKAMAUGA AND SPRING CREEKS ALSO FLOOD.

For the latest local river and creek stages, click on this link

There were several Tornado Warning issued across the local area Tuesday. Thankfully, there were no touchdown reports. Most of these warning were based on Doppler radar imagery. There was a funnel cloud spotted near Collinsville, AL in southern Dekalb County. Weiss Lake, a favorite fishing spot for a lot of us had a reported waterspout, but no damage. Some roof damage did occur in southern Chattooga County near Holland. Several trees have been reported down across the local area. Some of these trees have fallen due to wet soil and not wind.

Drier conditions should move in during the day Wednesday and continue through Friday. Granted, it will be colder, but temperatures should return to normal January levels. A few flurries or light snow showers could occur at higher elevations Wednesday night, but no problems expected at this time.

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of our viewing area through Wednesday morning as several rounds of heavy rain are projected to move through the Tennessee Valley. Click Here for the latest Watches and Warnings

Weather Tools For You:
Storm Track 9 Live Radar
Storm Track 9 Video Updates
Storm Track 9 Live Neighborhood Network (Local Rain Gauges)

A stalled front will act as a “rainfall highway” across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley through Wednesday Morning. This will result in two surges of rainfall through the next 24-36 hours. Rainfall amounts on average could be in the 2″-3″ range, but some locally higher amounts of up to or over 4″ will be possible. This is why Flood Watches are in effect over the entire region.

Rainfall estimate from the NAM model

Since we have been in a drought, we have not had to deal with flooding issues for quite a while. If you do live in a flood prone area, please be aware of the risk of flooding. Here are some other flooding safety tips.

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

The wetter than normal trend that began last month continues into the early part of the week. A weak front that will pass through early Monday will stall to our south and east. This will create a slightly cooler day Monday compared to Sunday. An area of low pressure will form along the Gulf coast and slide northeast Monday night and Tuesday. This should push some bands of heavy rain across the Tennessee Valley during this time frame. There will also be the possibility of some thunder locally and even some severe storms to our south over Alabama and Georgia.

The amount of moisture available in the atmosphere, or precipitable water values will be high. This could result in rainfall values in the 1″-3″ average range, with locally higher amounts in some spots. Here is just one of the estimates from the latest NAM model run:

The threat of heavy rain should taper of late Tuesday. Much colder air will also move in for Wednesday and Thursday. It will be possible for any remaining moisture to fall as some flurries or snow showers Wednesday-Wednesday Night. This is called wrap around moisture and typically does not cause any major wintry problems for our region. But, I’ll be keeping an eye on the amount of moisture left over once the cold arrives and the typical higher elevation spots.

Before winter time returns though, we have some heavy rain to watch our for! More posts to follow!

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

An earlier post showed how the temperatures in 2008 were close to normal. I did a little research and also found that the temperatures in 2008 were still just a tad above normal, but the coolest over the past 5 years.

Average Temperature in Chattanooga:

2004: 61.16
2005: 61.19
2006: 61.94
2007: 63.35
2008: 61.00

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

2008 was a nice change of pace from the record heat and drought of 2007. Granted, we were still below normal in rainfall, but temperatures stayed near normal. Here is a look at some of the stats for Chattanooga.

The average temperature for 2008 was 61.0 degrees which was 1.05 degrees above normal. Anytime the stats fall within 1 degree of normal, it would statistically be considered normal. So, for 2008, it was close to normal for local temperatures. The coldest temperature in Chattanooga was 14 degrees which occurred on January 20 and again on December 22. The hottest day was July 21 when the mercury topped out at 100.

Rainfall was an improvement from 2007, but still short of normal. We ended the year with a total of 47.33 inches which was 7.19 inches below normal. It was a big improvement from the 2007 total. Compared to last year, 2008 had 8.61 inches more rainfall. Hopefully, 2009 will continue this trend back to normal.

Snowfall was below normal. We had a few days with trace amounts even in March and November. The greatest (and only accumulation) in Chattanooga was on January 16 with 1.8 inches. Area mountains had several days of accumulating snow. Typically, the days when the official Chattanooga total is a trace, the area mountains tend to get a couple of inches. December 1 was a prime example with Chattanooga having only a trace accumulation, but surrounding cities like Pikeville, Monteagle and Mentone had anywhere between 2-3 inches on average. The average snowfall for Chattanooga is 4.5 inches a year, so 2008 was again below normal.

Happy New Year!

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

December was a very wet month, and at times it seemed as if mother nature was trying to make up the yearly deficit by the end of the year. We will end the month with 9.75 inches of precipitation which is well above the normal average of 5.10″. We will end 2008 with 47.33″ which is 7.03″ below the normal value of 54.36″. Compared to the very dry year of 2007, we received 8.71″ more rainfall in 2008.

December 2008 is also the wettest month in Chattanooga in over 5 years. May 2003 was the next wettest with 11.19″.

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

After taking a few days off to be with my family, I am “back in the saddle” today!

We have had such a gloomy December that today’s sunshine and mild temperatures are a blessing! Some changes are coming up which I will have more posts on shortly. A dry cold front rolls in tonight which will quickly cool us off for Wednesday. It should still be sunny Wednesday, but feel much different as a northwest breezes brings our afternoon temperatures back to normal in the upper 40s.
New Year’s Day should be dry and cool with highs in the upper 40s to near 50. Some moisture begins to move back in for early Friday. This should be mostly light rain, but I will be keeping an eye on the beginning of the rain as temperatures along the Plateau might still be near freezing. If any wintry precip does fall, it should be brief as the south wind kicks in and continues to warm the surrounding air.

Long range computer models and the overall pattern signals indicate that there is the potential for some very cold air to begin moving in toward the middle and end of next week (and beyond). January is just around the corner!!!!!

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

Christmas 2008 will not be a white one as temperatures will be quite mild in the middle 50s. At least there will be some sunshine which has been a rarity this month! Here is a look back at some weather facts for Chattanooga on Christmas Day through the years.

Average High and Low: 50/31
Warmest Christmas: 1955 - 75 degrees
Coldest Christmas Morning: 1983 - 2 degrees below zero
Wettest Christmas: 1973 - 2.01 inches

Christmas Snowfall Facts

Most Snow on Christmas Day: 1969 - 5.1 inches

(Any guesses on who that is?……Yep, it’s me Christmas Day 1969 in Chickamauga)

Other White Christmas’s In Chattanooga:

2002 - Trace of Snow
1993 - Trace of Snow
1989 - 0.2 Inches
1976 - Trace of Snow
1970 - Trace of Snow
1969 - 5.1 Inches
1962 - Trace of Snow
1961 - Trace of Snow
1956 - Trace of Snow
1953 - Trace of Snow
1935 - Trace of Snow
1915 - Trace of Snow
1913 - 0.1 Inches
1902 - 1.2 Inches
1899 - 0.1 Inches
1879 - Trace of Snow

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist