If you have been following my blog for the past week, you will know that this leading edge of rain has been a concern. We have seen a few areas at higher elevations experience some brief icing. This will not last long as a strong south-southeast wind will continue pushing temperatures upward. This leading edge of sleet and freezing rain occurred as the cold, drier air in place evaporated the initial bands of light rain. As evaporation occurs, it cools the surrounding air and sleet can form. Or, if the precip falls as rain, it reaches a surface that is still below freezing. Again though, this icy spell will be brief as temperatures are warming and humidity levels are rising.

Temperatures area wide tonight (even in the mountains) will not be dropping back below freezing. Therefore, it will be all rain. Warmer and wetter Wednesday with temperatures reaching the upper 50s.

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

This was some truly arctic air that spilled into the Tennessee Valley. Low temperatures this morning reflected that. Here are a few local reports:

Crossville, TN: 5
Murphy, NC: 11
Chattanooga: 15
Dalton, GA: 16
Ft Payne, AL: 18

Great Smoky Mountains National Park:
Mt LeConte (6600 ft): -9
Newfound Gap (5000ft): -3

Temperatures Monday afternoon will probably not even reach freezing in most spots. It should stay in the 20s at higher elevations. Tonight will still be very cold, but just a few degrees warmer as temperatures bottom out near 20 in the valley locations and 10s at higher elevations. Clouds will also begin to stream in, helping to limit the chill just a little bit. Tuesday will be cloudy. Even with the cloud cover, temps should be able to reach the middle/upper 40s behind a south-southeast wind at 10-15mph. Some light rain begins to move in late Tuesday evening. Tuesday Night will not be nearly as cold as the south wind keeps temperatures well above freezing near 40. As I have mentioned before, there was some concern that the beginning of the rain could possible be mixed. That is still possible, but only briefly along the Plateau. Most areas locally will see all rain as the warmth continues to move in from the south along with the moisture.

Christmas Eve Wednesday should be wet and warmer with high temps near 60. The showers should exit by early Thursday, providing a brief dry period for Christmas Day. Then rain comes back for Friday and Saturday.

On a totally unrelated subject……..GO FALCONS & GO TITANS!!!!!!!!!! What a weekend for our local NFL teams.

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

I am off today through Sunday, so Allison will be stepping in the next few nights.

I left a lengthy post yesterday because I knew that I would be concerned more with family and Christmas shopping than having a lot of time to plow through the long range models.

However, if you do follow the long range models, you can see exactly why I always urge caution with model data past 72 hours during the winter. Yes, the brief arctic surge will still roll in late Sunday through Monday. Rain should redevelop for late Tuesday and Wednesday. My only big concern about that was the beginning of the precipitation and just how much of the arctic air would be left. Because we have varying elevations, I am still keeping an eye on that, but this will be a rain event for most of us.

What is also interesting is that the longer range models since late Thursday have been backing off other cold surges and keeping us mild from Christmas Day and beyond. So, do you see what I mean? This is why I chose meteorology as a career….I love a challenge. There are few dull days in the weather world. I’ll have further posts between shopping breaks

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

With just a week away until Christmas, there are several weather hurdles that we must clear over the next 7 days.

Let’s start with the huge warm up for Friday. Yes, the clouds will STILL be hanging around for Friday, but the chance of rain will only be isolated to scattered as the main low pressure system slides by to our north. In advance of this “low”, a southwest wind should kick in and push our temperatures into the upper 60s, with some spots near 70. Conditions for Friday Night’s NCAA Championship should be cloudy and foggy with temperatures near 60 at kickoff (not bad!!).

Hurdle number one arrives Saturday. A stronger system dives our way from the Rockies. This will help set off a better chance of showers during the afternoon and evening. There is even the chance for some strong thunderstorms Saturday night…..yes, it’s December, but strong storms can happen during each of the 12 months. Rain should end during the day Sunday with the arrival of drier, but much colder air. The air mass moving in will be arctic, so there will be a rapid decline in temperature Sunday and Sunday night. Any leftover moisture could fall in the form of flurries, but at this point, the chill is the bigger story as the mercury might drop to near 22 locally Monday morning and teens to the north and mountains.

Now, hurdle one is a biggie, hurdle two will be tricky. If you follow long range computer model forecasts, I always urge caution during the winter with any computer forecast beyond 72 hours as things can change rapidly. However, the models can indicate a trend. The trend for Monday and Tuesday is for it to be very cold and dry. So far, so good, I think the models are performing well there. The tricky part comes late Tuesday and into Tuesday night. You see, the models sometimes can underestimate the strength or depth of an arctic air mass. The trend by the models is to bring moisture back in, along with a surge of warm air creating a wet night Tuesday night through Wednesday. I am a little concerned with Tuesday night and the beginning of the precipitation. There might be enough cold air in place that the precipitation could begin as wintry mix. Then, as the south wind gradually warms us, the valley locations will see mostly rain. But, areas north and east along with higher elevations might have a “mix” longer until it is mostly rain Wednesday.

So, as you can see, hurdle two is a bit tricky. First things first though, we need to clear hurdle one and the heavy rain potential Saturday night, before we look ahead to hurdle two. As for Christmas Day, it looks as if the rain should end during the evening of the 24th, and it could end as some flurries. Christmas Day looks dry at this point (still 7 days out though).

Stay tuned to the Storm Track 9 blog and our newscasts as we update you through an active weekend and week ahead.

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

Our weather will continue to warm on Thursday with highs reaching into the low 60s. Watch for fog to continue along with mostly cloudy skies and a few showers as well. Temperatures will be even warmer on Friday as we approach the mid and upper 60s for a high with again some scattered showers.

The chance for showers will increase later on Saturday as a cold front approaches the area. It looks like the front will move through Sunday morning and that will take the showers with it. Much colder air will then return for the rest of Sunday and early next week.

Bill Race
Senior Meteorologist
WTVC-TV

As expected, the rainfall Tuesday was nowhere near as heavy as the amounts from last week. On average, the median amount was around a 1/2 inch. Here is a list of some of the local rainfall totals:

Blue Springs, TN: 0.98″
Signal Mtn, TN: 0.79″
Etowah, TN: 0.76″
Cleveland, TN: 0.72″
Whitwell, TN: 0.58″
Athens, TN: 0.58″
Cleveland, TN: 0.56″
Lafayette, GA: 0.48″
Summerville, GA: 0.48″
Ten Mile, TN: 0.39″
Dalton, GA: 0.39″
Ringgold, GA: 0.38″
Altamont, TN: 0.32″
Monteagle, TN: 0.29″
Pikeville, TN: 0.28″

Source: CoCoRaHS

More Local Rainfall Totals and Live Conditions on the Storm Track 9 Live Neighborhood Net

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

Rain will still be likely for Tuesday although amounts should remain light. We will be seeing a change in air mass from the colder air now in place to much warmer weather starting on Wednesday. Showers will remain in our outlook for Wednesday through Friday, but some sunshine is possible especially later in the day Wednesday into Thursday.

At 2pm Monday, we had an interesting temperature change from west to east across the Volunteer State. While Kingsport recorded a balmy 64 degrees, Memphis had a chilly 31 degree reading at the same hour. The southern fringe of the arctic air mass that has been much of the country in the deep freeze has reached western Tennessee. Ice Storm Advisories are in effect for the Memphis area. However, that is about as far south as the arctic blast will make it.

An approaching cold front will set off some showers locally and will cool us a little into the lower 40s by Tuesday Morning. This front will stall just to our south and then move back north by Tuesday Night. This will keep us in a soggy pattern for most of the week. Temperatures will be cool Tuesday only reaching near 50, but once that stalled front moves back to the north it will open the door to some much warmer air from the south. We can expect a gradual warming trend from Wednesday through Friday, with Friday being the warmest as the mercury should top out in the upper 60s.

The rainfall this week should not be as heavy as last week. This will sort of be like a Seattle weather pattern with off and on light showers. Thursday should see some longer breaks in the showers only to have a better coverage of showers return for Friday before ending Saturday. Rainfall amounts through late Wednesday should stay near 0.50″ to 1″ on average. The better chance for heavier showers could occur late Friday as a cold front moves through and finally gets us out of the soggy pattern.

Temperatures should return to December normals by late weekend and into next week.

David Glenn
Storm Track 9 Chief Meteorologist

Expected Rainfall Through 18Z Tuesday (Light Across The Tennessee Valley)

Expected Snowfall Through 18Z Tuesday (Ice/Snow Threat Far To Our West)

The forecast includes rain for each day of the new work week and even into the next weekend. We will be seeing a change in our weather pattern to warmer weather as well.

This is not going to bring inches of rain each day. We will see periods of rain that will be light to moderate. Temperatures will be in the 50s to near 60 on Monday but may warm to near 70 by Thursday.

Looking farther down the road, I don’t see any big change to colder weather for the next 2 weeks. We will likely stay wetter than normal as well.

We will keep tracking here on newschannel9.com and of course on Newschannel 9.

Bill Race
Senior Meteorologist

Our weekend is looking dry which will give our area a chance to drain off the rest of the runoff from this past week. We will see some clouds and a high near 50 for today. Tonight will be partly cloudy with a low near 30. Then on Sunday a warmer day with a high in the mid 50s.

Next week will be much warmer with some highs in the 60s. However, the rain chances will be higher as well from Monday through Wednesday. We will keep tracking here on newschannel9.com and on NewsChannel9. Bill Race